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Somalia, an interlocutory week, awaiting the vote for Somaliland senators

The tension in Somalia between the Prime Minister and the President remains unresolved, though both are expected to indirect talks. In the meantime, Somaliland has announced the list of candidates for the elections for the Upper House. The verdict on the maritime border with Kenya will be delivered on October 12th.

Meetings aimed at defusing animosity between President Farmajo and Prime Minister Roble continue. The bone of contention is the latest appointments, so it is possible to find an agreement between the President’s wishes to avoid a complete departure of figures linked to him and those of the Premier, to maintain ownership of government action.

The former Head of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), Fahad Yasin, has meanwhile returned to Mogadishu (September 21st) on a private flight. His arrival does not dampen the animosity of recent days. It is, in fact, possible that the continuation of the enquiry into the presumed death of Ikran Tahlil could again provoke tensions and reactions from Farmajo and his allies, also due to poisonous rumours of a clan-related death among the causes of the kidnapping.

Polarisation may slow progress towards the vote, expected later this year. A more positive piece of news is, therefore, the communication of the list of candidates for senators by Somaliland; the 11 seats will be contested by 24 candidates; 7 among them are women. The effectiveness of the interlocution with Hargheisa, through the Speaker of the Senate, Hashi, is confirmed. Roble manages it given his unchanged popularity, although the latest events cast doubt on his neutrality even among portions of public opinion that are not aligned with the clan or the presidential circle.

On 12 October, the International Court of Justice in The Hague is expected to rule on the dispute over the maritime border with Kenya, initiated by Somalia in 2014. This is an area of about 100,000 km2, in which there are mainly important fishing resources. It is to be hoped that following the decision – which cannot be appealed – a framework of cooperation, never outlined in the long years of dispute, will continue.

Attacks and violent episodes with an Al Shabaab matrix occurred in Mogadishu, in the interior and in the central south. A suicide bomber attacked the Medina Hospital in the capital. The explosion of a mine in the coastal town of Marka and the attack on a Kenyan base in Lower Juba are also significant events.

Vincenzo Palmieri
Vincenzo Palmieri
Vincenzo Palmieri è un Senior Analyst per l’Africa dell’Institute for Global Studies, dove si occupa prevalentemente di Africa Orientale. Analista politico di una grande multinazionale, il suo ambito di esperienza professionale verte sull’analisi dei sistemi politici e delle dinamiche di crisi del Medio Oriente e dell’Africa.


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