Last October 14, a spokesman for the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), Shihab al-Tayeb, said that for the political opposition movement, the establishment of a supreme council of the armed forces is not a problem, provided that it represents a body within the military apparatus and that its participation in the established political transition institutions is not required (

UNITAMS representative in Khartoum, Volker Perthes, also spoke on the subject during a television interview with Al-Hadath channel, considering how the political parties seem to have accepted the need for a constructively and peacefully managed transition with the armed forces.

These statements seem to indicate the possibility of an imminent political breakthrough after months of crisis, and the outcome of the meeting held on October 11 between representatives of the trilateral mechanism (Volker Perthes for the UN, Mohamed Belaish for the African Union, and Mahmoud Younes for IGAD) and General Dagalo, vice chairman of the Sovereign Transitional Council (, was equally positive.

Although seemingly on its way to a solution, however, the political crisis has not ceased and continues to be affected by rather peculiar, and potentially risky, dynamics. Most opposition forces seem to have accepted the idea of a “soft” transition of power, thus without a showdown with the military over its role in politics and the economy. Issues that will be addressed gradually but that many fear will represent only a postponement to the future of problems that will not be long in emerging, especially with reference to the incorporation of General Dagalo’s Rapid Support Forces within the armed forces and, not least, the downsizing of the military’s economic interests.

Added to this problem is that of differences between General al-Burhan and General Dagalo, which could result in open opposition between the two, with unpredictable outcomes in terms of security and political stability.

The possibility within a short period of time of the formation of a civilian-led transitional government, however, seems to have fueled broad expectations within Sudanese society, which is hoping for a quick exit from the crisis. Prominent among the figures being considered most likely to be appointed to the presidency of the future transitional government are Ibrahim Al-Badawi and Nasr Al-Din Abdel-Bari, former ministers of finance and justice, respectively, who seem to enjoy the approval of the military authorities and who could thereby launch the transition process in an atmosphere of greater détente (


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